CBSH

Commerce Bancshares INC

One filing signal, as this feed published it.

CBSH Commerce Bancshares INC BEARISH conviction 1

2026-08-04: Roller David L. (Senior Vice President) — EXERCISE-AND-SELL (option exercise, not a position reduction) — $50.0K of CBSH (open-market, Form 4, code S) [sub-threshold WATCH] [exercise-and-sell: sold 830 sh, all of them exercised the same day at $39.90 vs a $60.28 avg sale — the $33.1K strike was settled in shares returned to the issuer (code D), not in cash, so $50.0K gross is $50.0K of cash; the other 2,677 went back to the issuer — 357 withheld for the exercise price or the tax (code F) and 2,320 returned under Rule 16b-3(e) (code D) — nothing was kept, every share exercised was sold, withheld or returned] [CORRECTION 2026-08-29: round 8 verifier sweep — the row claimed "$33.1K cost to acquire, $16.9K net" — the filing settles the strike in shares returned to the issuer, so no cash was paid for them (cash from the sale is $50.0K, not $16.9K). Re-derived from the filing under the fixed parser and re-checked against it claim by claim. Original text in signal_events]

Trade date
2026-08-04
Filed
2026-08-06
Flagged
2026-08-07

SEC Form 4 on EDGAR permalink 0000022356-26-000192

Everything sibyl flagged on 2026-08-07

What these fields mean

Direction
Direction (BULLISH/BEARISH) classifies the event, not the price. It is not a forecast, and no scout's direction has been validated as predictive.
Conviction
Confidence is a heuristic conviction score, not a calibrated probability. On a single filing it is the scout's own 1-5 grade; on a row that rolls several filings together it is their SUM and has no ceiling, so it can read above 5. The stored number is published as it stands — never clamped, never hidden.
Dates
Dates are rendered exactly as filed. A sibyl row leads with the TRADE date the Form 4 reports; a pelosi row shows the member's trade date and the date the disclosure was filed, which are rarely the same day. "Flagged" is the day this feed first published the row.
Backfilled rows
A row marked "already old news when flagged" reached the feed after the fact. It is a record of a filing, not of a timely catch.
Sources
Every row links to the filing it was read from — an SEC Form 4 on EDGAR, or the disclosure document filed with the House Clerk or the Senate. A row whose source document this feed cannot link to is left off it.

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